CNN Central News & Network-ITDC India Epress/ITDC News Bhopal: Dehradun. A new scientific study on geological movement beneath the Uttarakhand Himalayas has raised concern. According to researchers, a large part of the Main Himalayan Thrust, located between the Indian and Eurasian plates, is strongly locked. As a result, stress generated by the continuous movement of the plates is building up inside the earth.
The study compares the accumulated energy in this region with the energy released by a major earthquake of about magnitude 8.1. However, scientists have clarified that this is not an earthquake prediction, but an estimate of the accumulation of geological stress.
The study, titled “Evidence of Strong Plate Coupling in the Uttarakhand Himalayas,” has been prepared by Dibyashakti Panda of the Central University of Tamil Nadu and colleagues. The researchers analysed data from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations on the earth’s surface and radar images obtained from Japan’s ALOS-2 satellite.
According to the study, the Main Himalayan Thrust is locked across a width of about 115 kilometres, and its effect has been observed up to a depth of nearly 20 kilometres from the surface. In this zone, a large part of the Indian plate’s movement is being stored as stress in rocks instead of continuously slipping along the fault.
The researchers found a gap of about 18 millimetres per year between the expected motion of the plates and the actual slip on the fault. In scientific terms, this is called a “slip deficit.” Satellite radar data also recorded a maximum rate of vertical uplift of the ground at about 4 to 6 millimetres per year.
These figures indicate that stress is continuously accumulating in the Himalayan fault beneath Uttarakhand. If a large part of the fault slips together in the future, a powerful earthquake could occur. However, the study does not determine when this may happen or what the actual magnitude of such an earthquake would be.
The study compares the rate of energy building up in an approximately 300-kilometre-long Himalayan fault segment with the energy released by a major earthquake of around magnitude 8.1. This comparison has been made to explain the long-term accumulation of stress. It does not mean that a magnitude 8.1 earthquake will definitely occur every 100 years. Nor can it indicate the date or time of the next earthquake.
The Uttarakhand region and the surrounding Himalayas are seismically sensitive because of the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates. In 1991, an earthquake of about magnitude 6.8 struck Uttarkashi, and in 1999, an earthquake of about magnitude 6.4 occurred in Chamoli. These events underlined the need for earthquake-resistant capacity in buildings, roads and other infrastructure in hilly areas.
According to experts, the purpose of such research is not to announce the timing of a possible earthquake, but to better understand the stress accumulating inside the earth and the risks associated with it. It is important to strengthen seismic monitoring in Uttarakhand, ensure compliance with building construction standards, improve preparedness of hospitals and emergency services, and regularly practise disaster management plans at the local level.
The message of the study is clear: geological stress is accumulating beneath Uttarakhand, and the potential for a major earthquake in the region needs to be taken seriously. But at present, no prediction has been made that a mega-earthquake will occur on any specific date.
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